Friday, August 22, 2008

Tie in the Electoral College

Have a look over at today's Election Projection and you'll notice that it's 269-269, a perfect tie. What would happen if that happened on Election Night? Then the race would get thrown to the House of Representatives, where each state's delegation would get one vote. Since the House delegations are dominated by the Democrats, an Electoral College tie is a victory for Barack Obama. Thus, McCain needs 270 electoral votes for victory, while Barack needs only 269. There are a few realistic scenarios where this could occur, for instance: say McCain gets Nevada and New Hampshire back, but then loses Colorado: It's still 269-269. Needless to say, McCain is working with a very slim electoral margin. The only way I see him winning is winning all of the states that Bush won in 2004 with the exception of Iowa and New Mexico, which look to be out of McCain's grasp. That would give McCain a 274-264 win.

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